A CFO’s perspective on navigating turbulent economic times

For UK finance leaders, uncertainty is no longer a disruption to business as usual. It is business as usual. The headlines change, the causes evolve, but the pressures businesses face remain strikingly familiar. The operating landscape has hardly stood still. Businesses have gone from navigating the pandemic and Brexit to managing ongoing conflicts, changing tariffs and trade relationships, and continued energy market volatility.

What's driving economic uncertainty for UK businesses in 2026?

Economic uncertainty is not simply about whether the UK is growing or contracting. For businesses, it is the difficulty of making decisions when the conditions behind those decisions keep moving. Inflation, interest rates, energy costs, trade and geopolitical developments can all shift the outlook for costs, demand and investment.

UK snapshot: the numbers behind the uncertainty

Indicator	Latest position	Source
Bank Rate	3.75% (held, July 2026)	Bank of England
CPI inflation	2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026	ONS
CFOs expecting operating costs to rise	Net 84% over the next 12 months	Deloitte UK CFO Survey, October 2025

Three forces stand out:

Geopolitical risk and energy volatility

Energy markets can react quickly to conflict and instability, while geopolitical disruption can raise the cost of sourcing and moving goods. ONS data shows that 29% of UK businesses with 10 or more employees were concerned about international conflict affecting their supply chains in late July 2026. Among those businesses, 52% expected sourcing costs and 47% transport costs to be affected.

Inflation and interest rates

UK inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target, with CPI at 2.9% in July 2026. Bank Rate remains at 3.75%, keeping borrowing and financing costs higher than businesses were accustomed to before the recent inflation shock.

The pressure is reflected in CFO sentiment. Deloitte’s October 2025 UK CFO Survey found that a net 84% of finance leaders expected operating costs to rise over the following 12 months.

Trade friction and supply chain fragility

Changing tariffs and trade relationships continue to add complexity to sourcing and routes to market, while disruption to global shipping can add further pressure on costs and lead times. The 2024 disruption to Red Sea shipping showed how quickly geopolitical events can reach UK supply chains: UK imports routed around the Cape of Good Hope increased nearly 40 times from 2023, with transit times increasing by several weeks.

What role can the CFO play during economic uncertainty?

Economic uncertainty puts the CFO at the centre of decisions that extend well beyond the balance sheet. The role is to translate changing external conditions into clear choices for the business, balancing resilience today with the investments needed for tomorrow.

As a strategic advisor to the CEO and board, the CFO brings financial insight into decisions on costs, investment, growth and risk. The focus is on determining what to cut, what to protect and where to invest, including which technology and AI investments can improve productivity and performance.

That requires clear, decision-ready financial insight, with visibility of cash position, margins, working capital and key risks, alongside scenario analysis showing how changes in costs, demand or financing could affect the business.

Alignment across the business is equally important. Finance needs to work closely with procurement, operations and commercial teams, creating a common view of performance, risks and scenarios so decisions can be made quickly and consistently.

Maintaining financial discipline is essential to protecting cash flow and preserving flexibility. Strong controls, reliable data, disciplined spending and timely cash collection become even more important when conditions are uncertain. The role is not simply to protect the business from risk, but to give it the confidence to act despite it.

An interview perspective: What OneAdvanced's CFO has to say

Stephen Dews joined OneAdvanced as Chief Financial Officer back in February 2023, tasked with leading the company’s strategic and operational finance initiatives. He has many years’ experience leading finance teams in the IT sector (both within public and private organisations). In the technology space, he has held the positions of EMEA Finance Director at Oracle, Group Financial Controller at UNIT4, and more recently CFO at Keylane.  

We sat down with Stephen to talk about the economic climate, its associated challenges, and how to successfully navigate these stormy conditions. Here’s what he had to say: 

Why is the CFO’s role even more important when businesses are facing challenging economic conditions?

“The CFO plays a central role in risk management, cost control, financial planning, and forecasting, which are all imperative during an economic crisis. As the financial steward of our respective companies, CFOs have a crucial responsibility to inform stakeholders, while also using our expertise in financial analysis to implement long-term strategies that are sustainable.

Cash is the most important point on a CFO's radar, but even more so when interest rates are higher. We must ensure our data/forecasts are accurate if we’re to have a grip on cash inflows and outflows. Investment decisions, business cases, and   working capital management also gain increased significance in such an economic climate.” 

What can CFOs do to thrive during these times?

“CFOs should ensure the financial policies and processes within their organisation are clearly defined. This helps to maintain as much control as possible at a time that is inherently unstable. As I touched upon, it’s essential they develop a deep understanding of the cash flow situation if they are to successfully steer their company through turbulence.

Attention to detail is key when sifting through financial data and identifying potential risks/cost-cutting opportunities. Additionally, I’d suggest prioritising investments that are aligned to core organisational objectives, while not being afraid to embrace innovative methods that serve to diversify income streams. This gives businesses the best chance of achieving their growth ambitions while remaining resilient.” 

How do you think CFOs can better manage their business spend?

“It’s crucial to manage costs in the right ways, because some cost-cutting can be detrimental, if, for example, it negatively impacts the quality of your products or customer/employee outcomes. View the crisis as an opportunity to root out unnecessary spend and inefficiencies. If there are steps within your operation or processes that aren’t needed, this is where you can streamline.

Don’t neglect your talent or tech stack though, as these are your greatest assets when it comes to finding intelligent spend management strategies. Procurement is an area in which big savings can be found, such as negotiating better terms with suppliers, making your supply chain more localised, or identifying materials that regularly go to waste due to overstocking.”     

Data is an essential pillar of finance. Just how important is data integrity in all of this?

“I don’t think it’s an overstatement to say data is everything in finance. Data forms the backbone of all financial decision-making. But these decisions will be completely misguided if the data you’re using lacks integrity, quality, and accuracy. Decisions carry even more weight when money is tight, so businesses must give themselves the best possible chance of succeeding. 

They should invest in their data quality, putting measures in place to ensure data is captured, stored, and monitored effectively. It’s important to regularly review your financial dataset, ironing out any duplications, filling any gaps, and making sure the right employees have access to a single, unified version of the truth. Once finance teams are assured of their data’s integrity, their reporting, risk management, forecasting, planning, regulatory compliance, and customer relationships will be greatly improved.”     

As you’ve mentioned, reporting and forecasting are integral tasks. How do you best present this information, as well as your recommendations, to the board and CEO? 

“It’s crucial your main points are supported by data. And even more importantly, it must be data that stakeholders trust. Financial data can often be complex by nature, so it’s also beneficial to turn this into something that is more comprehensible. Visual aids can be a good method for making key insights more readily apparent.  

Many accounting software solutions today have built-in reports and dashboards, so that top-level performance metrics can be demonstrated with ease. If you’re able to link this performance data to business outcomes and drivers, this makes for an even more compelling presentation. And with regards to putting my recommendations across, I find that collaborative dialogue is a helpful method, as it creates a sense of inclusivity when inviting others to discuss the implications of your findings.”       

Having the right technology in place can undoubtedly help with everything we’ve discussed. How do you weigh up the cost of digital transformation against the simultaneous need to reduce costs?

“For me, it’s a no-brainer. It may seem counterintuitive to spend at a time when you’re looking to scale back. But some investments represent an unmissable opportunity to boost efficiency. When using the right innovations, you’re far more likely to increase profitability due to the associated productivity gains. In terms of technology adoption, inaction often proves to be more expensive in the long run. There’s also the risk of getting left behind by competitors. If you’re the only business in your field without a particular operational capability, are you likely to be the top choice for prospective customers and partners? 

However, CFOs should of course do their due diligence by analysing the cost effectiveness of the system in question. Many software providers will give you access to an ROI (return on investment) calculator, so this is a good place to start. And be sure to select a provider that is in sync with your values, as there’s a good chance they’ll be your technology partner for a sustained period of time.” 

Are there any other tips you want to offer to CFOs?

“Firstly, I’d say never lose sight of the customer. Keep their needs at the forefront of your decision-making process, and ensure your strategies have their best interests at heart. Identify areas where efficiencies can be improved, but not at the expense of customers or other key stakeholders. Do this by optimising processes and maximising resources, but, again, don’t lose sight of the business’s long-term viability when reviewing costs. 

Also, be sure to leverage advanced tools to enhance the forecasting and   scenario planning capabilities of your finance team, as this will make them more agile. And implement a bottom-up/collaborative approach to budgeting, as this fosters a deeper understanding of resource requirements. Lastly, communicate updates to the wider team in a compelling and competent manner, as you ultimately have the authority to breed confidence in others.”  

End of Q&A. 

6 Strategies CFOs can use to navigate turbulent times

The challenge is not simply to weather uncertainty, but to build future-ready finance teams that can respond to it. These six strategies can help strengthen resilience and support future-proofing your finance team while keeping the business positioned for growth.

1. Prioritise cash-flow visibility and forecasting accuracy

Regularly monitoring working-capital KPIs can provide early signals of emerging pressure. A 13-week rolling cash forecast can give finance teams a more granular view of inflows and outflows, helping identify pressure points and liquidity risks earlier. Re-forecast liquidity under different interest-rate and demand scenarios, with covenant and counterparty risk visible alongside the core cash position.

2. Cut selectively, not indiscriminately

Higher operating costs can make cost reduction an immediate priority, but broad cuts can weaken performance as well as margins. Distinguish between spending that strengthens performance, such as technology, data and automation, and low-value spend such as duplicated processes and under-used assets. Review supplier terms, pricing and procurement to identify opportunities to protect margins without compromising capability.

3. Plan for multiple futures, not one forecast

A single-point forecast can quickly become outdated when demand, costs or financing conditions shift. Base, upside and downside scenarios give the business a clearer view of how different conditions could affect performance and what actions each would require. Set trigger points for key decisions around hiring, capex and discretionary spend, and update forecasts regularly as conditions change.

4. Make trusted data the foundation for faster decisions

Fragmented spreadsheets, inconsistent definitions and manual processes can undermine cash visibility, forecasting and scenario analysis when accuracy matters most. Establish a reliable source of truth, standardise key data and automate validation and reconciliation wherever possible. This gives finance teams greater confidence in the information behind critical decisions.

5. Turn financial insight into coordinated action

Keep communication clear, consistent and decision-focused. Treat the business plan as a living document, regularly reviewing it with the board and wider business and making the assumptions behind it clear. Give stakeholders a concise view of cash, risks, scenarios and contingency plans, creating a shared understanding of what is changing and how the business should respond.

6. Invest where technology and AI can deliver measurable returns

Economic uncertainty can make growth investment easier to deprioritise, but freezing investment altogether can limit future capability. Assess technology and AI in finance investments through a rigorous payback lens, prioritising areas such as automation, forecasting, reporting and compliance where they can reduce costs, improve efficiency or build future capability.

How finance technology supports CFOs through uncertainty

Finance technology cannot remove uncertainty, but it can help CFOs understand its impact and respond faster. The right systems can:

• Bring financial and operational data together, giving CFOs a clearer, more current view of performance, cash flow, costs and working capital.
• Automate reporting and surface insights, reducing the effort involved in compiling and analysing data while making trends, anomalies and emerging risks easier to identify.
• Build and test scenarios faster, connecting reliable data to forecasting models so CFOs can assess the potential impact of changes in demand, costs, interest rates and other variables, and adjust plans as conditions change.
• Make financial information easier to act on, with financial management software helping turn complex data into dashboards, reports and decision-ready insights that give boards and leadership teams a clearer basis for action.
• Automate routine finance processes, including AP/AR, reconciliations and expenses, reducing manual work and freeing capacity for analysis, forecasting and strategic decision-making.

The value is not simply having more data. It is being able to turn data into insight, decisions and action while there is still time to respond.

If your legacy systems and manual processes are slowing reporting, analysis and scenario planning, it may be worth reviewing when to upgrade your finance and accounting software and the financial benefits of implementing cloud technology.

Build a more responsive finance function with OneAdvanced

OneAdvanced Financials gives finance teams real-time reporting, dashboards, financial analysis and budgeting, forecasting and planning capabilities.

Connected with procurement through Purchasing and Source to Contract, finance leaders can gain greater visibility of spend, suppliers and contracts.

IQ, the intelligent system of work, brings data, workflows, AI and integrations together to support connected decision-making.

If your finance technology is making it harder to see, analyse and act, explore how OneAdvanced can help. Contact us now,

Common mistakes CFOs should avoid during uncertain times

Cutting costs indiscriminately

Across-the-board reductions can erode quality, customer experience and morale. Target structural inefficiency and low-value spend instead.

Relying on stale or fragmented data

Inconsistent spreadsheets and disconnected systems can undermine forecasting, scenario planning and financial visibility.

Freezing technology investment

CFOs are increasingly recognising the potential of digital technology and AI to improve productivity and business performance. Assess investments on their potential return rather than applying a blanket freeze.

Relying on a single forecast

A single set of assumptions can leave the business unprepared when conditions change. Use multiple scenarios and link them to clear actions.

Failing to communicate clearly

Explain the assumptions, scenarios and actions so the board and wider business understand what is changing and how the organisation is responding.

FAQs

What is the role of a CFO during economic uncertainty?

The CFO acts as a strategic advisor, translating changing economic and geopolitical conditions into business decisions. Their priorities include protecting liquidity and margins, strengthening financial visibility, assessing scenarios and risks, and giving the board clear insight to support timely decisions.

How can CFOs manage cash flow during a downturn?

CFOs can improve cash flow through accurate forecasting, effective working capital management and close monitoring of inflows and outflows. A 13-week rolling cash forecast can provide greater visibility of near-term liquidity, while reviewing receivables, inventory and payables can help identify opportunities to improve cash flow.

What cost-cutting strategies should CFOs avoid?

Avoid across-the-board cuts that degrade quality or customer experience, reductions that undermine data and analytics capability, and blanket freezes on technology investment. Target inefficiency and low-value spend instead.

What is scenario planning and why does it matter for finance teams?

Scenario planning builds multiple plausible views of the future, from a severe downturn to a moderate slowdown or recovery, with each scenario linked to specific actions. Combined with rolling forecasts and trigger points, it gives finance teams a disciplined framework for preparing for uncertainty and responding quickly when conditions change.

How does data integrity affect financial forecasting?

Forecasts and scenario plans are only as reliable as the data behind them. Fragmented, duplicated or poorly governed data can distort cash positions and undermine forecast accuracy. A reliable, consistent source of data gives CFOs greater confidence in the information used for financial planning and decision-making.

What is the difference between a recession and economic uncertainty?

A recession is a period of significant economic decline, while economic uncertainty is the difficulty of predicting how economic conditions will develop. Growth, inflation, interest rates and demand may move in unexpected directions, making it harder for businesses to plan and invest, even when the economy is not in recession.